Win-Hungry Chiefs, Bills, Face Off at Arrowhead

Football Betting Lines

11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A hint of desperation will be in the air at Arrowhead Stadium, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills - two teams in dire need of a victory - will slug it out in a quest for a long-overdue trip to the left column of the standings.

The homestanding Chiefs (1-9) enter Week 12 with the second-worst record in the NFL behind only the winless Detroit Lions, are in the midst of a six-game losing streak, and have gone 1-19 in their past 20 contests dating back to last season - the worst stretch in team history.

Herm Edwards' club has been close to lifting their embargo on winning football over the past month, losing their past four games by a modest total of 18 points. Last Sunday saw the Chiefs get an opportunity to win the game in the fourth quarter, as they trailed the Saints just 27-20 for much of the final frame, but were held off the scoreboard over the final 13:54 and fell, 30-20.

Kansas City's only win of the season came back on Oct. 5, a 33-19 triumph over the first-place Broncos, and the Chiefs have yet to win in five starts with promising second-year quarterback Tyler Thigpen at the helm of the offense.

Thigpen has eight touchdown passes versus just one interception during the club's four-week run of close games, but has yet to engineer his initial victory as an NFL starter.

His counterpart this Sunday, Buffalo's Trent Edwards, has been on a similar losing streak over the past month, but hasn't looked nearly as good as Thigpen while compiling it.

After serving as one of the league's most efficient signal-callers during the Bills' surprising 5-1 start, Edwards has seemingly lost the plot during the team's current four-game skid.

The second-year-pro out of Stanford has thrown three touchdown passes versus eight interceptions in the three losses, including a trio of first-quarter interceptions that put Dick Jauron's team behind the eight-ball in this past Monday's eventual 29-27 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Edwards did not throw a pick over the final three quarters, but was also rarely permitted to throw the ball downfield following the disastrous first frame. Just four of Edwards' 16 completions on the night went to wide receivers, including zero to No. 1 wideout Lee Evans.

The defeat gave the Bills their first four-game losing streak since 2005, and also dropped the team into last place in the AFC East behind the Jets (7-3), Dolphins (6-4), and Patriots (6-4).

SERIES HISTORY

Buffalo holds a 19-16-1 edge in its all-time regular season series with Kansas City, including a 14-3 home victory when the teams last met, in 2005. The Chiefs won the previous two meetings, both in Kansas City, in 2002 and 2003. Buffalo last won at Arrowhead Stadium in 2000.

In addition to their regular season edge, the Bills hold a 2-1 advantage in postseason games against the Chiefs. Buffalo was a 30-13 home winner in the 1993 AFC Championship; won by a 37-14 margin at home in a 1991 AFC Divisional Playoff; and was a 31-7 home loser in the 1966 AFL Championship.

Edwards was 6-4 against the Bills while serving as head coach of the Jets from 2001 through 2005, including 4-1 in home games. The Bills' Jauron was 1-1 against the Chiefs while serving as head coach with the Bears (1999-2003), and is 1-0 head-to-head against Edwards in his career.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

Though Edwards' regression has been troubling, the Bills were able to take an offensive bright spot away from Monday night's loss. Running back Marshawn Lynch (631 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 7 TD) had his strongest outing of the year in the setback, carrying 23 times for 119 yards in his first triple-digit outing of 2008, while also hauling in a game-high 10 receptions and 58 yards, including a nice-looking 18-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown in the second quarter. Third-down back Fred Jackson (297 rushing yards, 1 TD, 23 receptions) also offered a spark with 12 rushes totaling 60 yards, but also lost a fumble in the game. Still, although Buffalo will try to establish the run, all eyes will be on Edwards (1993 passing yards, 8 TD, 10 INT) as he attempts to recapture his previous mojo. Evans (37 receptions, 3 TD) and Roscoe Parrish (18 receptions, 1 TD) will have to pose as downfield threats after combining for just one catch against Cleveland, and rookie Steve Johnson (6 receptions) will try to build on a performance that saw him catch three passes for 41 yards on Monday. Tight end Robert Royal (26 receptions, 1 TD) has also been a credible middle-of-the-field target for Edwards this year, and has been part of a group that has allowed 25 sacks on the year, but did not give one up on Monday night.

Edwards, Lynch, and company will try to attack a Kansas City defense that has both struggled and been beset by injury turmoil of late. Kansas City enters Week 12 ranked last in the league in total defense (402.5 yards per game), sacks (6), yards allowed per rush (5.1), rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (15), and opponents' third-down percentage (50.8), and lists starters including linebackers Donnie Edwards (hamstring/knee) and Pat Thomas (hamstring), defensive backs Jarrad Page (groin) and Patrick Surtain (questionable) and ends Tamba Hali (ankle) and Turk McBride (shoulder) on its injury report this week. All of the above players are listed as questionable for Sunday except for McBride, who was placed on season-ending injured reserve just days after posting a team-high-tying seven tackles against the Saints. Other contributors in last week's defensive performance versus New Orleans included rookie cornerback Maurice Leggett (22 tackles), who had seven stops of his own, and journeyman linebacker Rocky Boiman (25 tackles), who had seven tackles on a day in which the Chiefs allowed a modest 103 ground yards.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Like Buffalo, the Chiefs also come off a week in which their scuffling running game received a shot in the arm. Running back Larry Johnson (484 rushing yards, 3 TD, 7 receptions) returned from a four-game disciplinary-related absence in the team's loss to the Saints, rushing 19 times for 67 yards but failing to score a touchdown on several chances inside the 5-yard line. The Chiefs had to settle for field goals of 20 and 21 yards on two separate drives when Johnson, who also had a 20-yard catch out of the backfield, was stopped cold. In addition to trying to get Johnson going, Thigpen (1337 passing yards, 10 TD, 5 INT) will again look to show chemistry with his three primary targets - wideouts Dwayne Bowe (55 receptions, 5 TD) and Mark Bradley (22 receptions, 2 TD) along with tight end Tony Gonzalez (55 receptions, 5 TD). Bowe had seven catches, 53 yards, and scored both Kansas City touchdowns against New Orleans last week, while Bradley logged a team-best 54 yards worth of catches. Gonzalez, meanwhile, might not want to incite the ire of a team he refused to be traded to when the Chiefs were shopping him at last month's trade deadline. The Kansas City o-line has allowed 28 sacks on the year, including four of Thigpen last Sunday.

The Bills rank a respectable 13th in NFL total defense (312 yards per game) as Week 12 begins, but as Cleveland showed on Monday night, the Buffalo defense has holes that can be exploited. The lack of a pass rush, due in large part to the extended absence of top end Aaron Schobel (foot), has had a trickle-down effect on a secondary that has totaled just four interceptions all year. Cornerbacks Terrence McGee (38 tackles, 2 INT) and Jabari Greer (37 tackles, 2 INT), who did manage to hold Brady Quinn to a 14-of-36 passing night on Monday, will likely defend Bowe and Bradley with an eye toward making a big play or two. Safeties Ko Simpson (45 tackles) and Bryan Scott (32 tackles, 1 sack) will help out over the top. Among active Buffalo linemen, tackle Marcus Stroud (31 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is the sack leader, and has also been part of a group that ranks 18th in the league against the run (109.6 yards per game). Stroud had five tackles on Monday, but also helped allow the Browns to churn up 161 yards in the running game. Linebackers Paul Posluzsny (73 tackles) and ex-Chief Kawika Mitchell (56 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), who are 1-2 on the team in tackles, will have to do a better job against Johnson and company this week.

FANTASY FOCUS

Edwards was a popular pickup on fantasy waiver wires when the Bills were 5-1, but he's been almost universally dropped following a poor four-game stretch. Evans, his No. 1 wideout, has also struggled of late, though both he and his quarterback should bounce back a bit against the depleted Kansas City defense. Lynch has a strong chance of repeating his triple-digit performance of Monday night. The Bills defense hasn't made enough big plays or held opponents off the scoreboard enough to warrant starting status. Kicker Rian Lindell is generally reliable, his big fourth-quarter miss on Monday night not withstanding.

For a 1-9 football team, the Chiefs have some decent fantasy options. Thigpen is generally good for a couple of touchdown passes and hasn't committed many turnovers, while his top two targets Gonzalez and Bowe have reaped the benefits of playing with a blossoming quarterback. In his second week back after being given 20 touches last week, Larry Johnson should also get a look. Kicker Connor Barth and the Chiefs defense should remain on the waiver wire.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Chiefs have to be looking at the Bills as a potential victim, but Kansas City's still-depleted state of personnel will make getting that elusive second win problematic. Though Buffalo dropped a disappointing contest against Cleveland just six days ago, the Bills played well offensively in the final three quarters of that game and remain desperate to climb back into the Wild Card and AFC East races. Simply put, they're a better team than the Chiefs, even if the results of the past month would suggest that the clubs are evenly matched. Look for Edwards to bounce back, for Lynch to keep running strong, and for the Buffalo defense to limit Thigpen's big plays in an important Bills win.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bills 20, Chiefs 10