UCLA looks for improvement under Neuheisel
NCAA Football Betting Lines
08/12/2010 -
LOS ANGELES (AP) -UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel insists he takes no pleasure in his crosstown rivals' troubles.
He wants the Bruins to win the Race for Los Angeles because they're better than Southern California, not because the Trojans were tripped up by Reggie Bush and the NCAA.
Yet Neuheisel also realizes USC's woes have put UCLA in prime position to make Southland football competitive again - and in the third year of the coach's tenure, he knows it's high time to start seeing results from his rebuilding project. As an alumnus, that's exactly what he would demand of anybody in charge of the once-powerful program.
``We can't take any time to worry about SC,'' Neuheisel said during a preseason interview at the Rose Bowl. ``But is there a window of opportunity? Certainly, and we want to take advantage of that and play on this field in January.''
UCLA has been picked to finish near the bottom of the Pac-10 for another season, ranking eighth in the conference media poll. Neuheisel said expectations sometimes lag behind results: After making a bowl game while going 7-6 last season despite an inept running game and offensive line, he believes the Bruins' weaknesses are closer to strengths after a third straight year of solid recruiting made possible by everything that makes UCLA special.
``UCLA can be back in the national conversation immediately,'' Neuheisel said. ``UCLA's brand is as good as any in the nation. If we get back to that level and get back to the Rose Bowl, we'll be right back on people's minds immediately, and for years to come. I know football has been on hiatus for a long time, but we have the ability to get it right back on top.''
Most people who are paid to have such opinions don't think the Bruins will do it quite yet. But where others see flaws in a defense that lost two of its best players, Neuheisel sees an opportunity for young players - and where experts see perhaps too many returnees from a sub-par offense that managed just 22 points per game last season, Neuheisel sees the lessons of experience.
Neuheisel and coordinator Norm Chow also spent the offseason installing a new offensive look, dubbed the Revolver.
After the Bruins' profound struggles while rushing for just 114.6 yards per game last season, ranking 97th in the country, Neuheisel decided he needed to try something unorthodox to get them moving. The UCLA coaches consulted with Nevada coach Chris Ault, who uses an offense called the Pistol - a modified shotgun formation with the quarterback standing a few yards behind the center, and the tailback a few yards behind that.
The scheme is designed to make the defense worry about runs by Kevin Prince, the athletic Bruins quarterback who didn't get much chance to show off his elusiveness last season. Neuheisel is no stranger to unorthodox offenses after installing the Veer for quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo at Washington several years ago - and this change could hardly make the Bruins' offense any less potent.
Prince is the presumptive starter after his up-and-down 2009, while tailbacks Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman also are back. Receivers Taylor Embree and Nelson Rosario return, as does most of the offensive line that gave up 29 sacks and struggled to open running room last season.
Neuheisel sees those returnees as a good thing.
``On our offensive line, finally we've got some level of experience for the first time since we've been here,'' Neuheisel said. ``You feel like you're going to be a little bit better off. I just believe we're further along at the start, and because of that, I think we've given ourselves a better chance to move the ball.''
The defense lost cornerback Alterraun Verner and defensive lineman Brian Price, but returns a solid group led by safety Rahim Moore, who led the nation with 10 interceptions last season. Defense wasn't usually the Bruins' problem last season, and Moore believes they have a chance to be solid again.
``It's not about topping last year,'' Moore said. ``If I could, I would take away the 10 picks to get 10 wins. It's about getting me better and getting everyone around me better. This is our chance to show ourselves on the biggest stage against great teams like Kansas State, Texas and Houston.''
Ah, the early-season schedule: UCLA has a visit from Stanford mixed into those three tough September nonconference games, minimizing the Bruins' chance at a strong early-season start. If UCLA stumbles early, Neuheisel's task will be tougher - and don't forget, the Bruins went 0-5 last October, repeatedly falling short of wins that could have kept them rolling.
Neuheisel's optimism doesn't waver even when thinking about his rough September schedule. He's banking on the Bruins moving forward with confidence.
``For the first time since I've been here, we have an experienced team,'' Neuheisel said. ``There's confidence in the locker room, confidence in the coaching staff, and now we just have to find results on the field to justify that confidence.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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