Indy holds slim lead going into fourth quarter
Football Betting Lines
02/07/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joseph Addai's four-yard touchdown run in the third quarter has helped the Colts grab a tenuous 17-16 lead over New Orleans heading into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIV.
Drew Brees has lit a fire for the Saints with a spectacular performance over the last two quarters, but he'll need to lead the team to at least one more score if New Orleans is to celebrate its first-ever Super Bowl victory.
Garrett Hartley has kicked three field goals - all over 40 yards - for the Saints. New Orleans' lone touchdown came on a 16-yard pass from Brees to Pierre Thomas.
Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has been steady under center for the Colts as he tries to engineer his team to a second title in four years.
Trailing, 10-6, the Saints used a gutsy approach to start the second half, trying on onside kick. The ball glanced off Indianapolis' Hank Baskett, and after a scrum at the bottom of the pile, New Orleans' Jonathan Casillas came away with the football.
It was the first onside kick in the Super Bowl coming before the fourth quarter, and the move paid off. Brees moved the Saints into the lead at 13-10 on a 16-yard touchdown pass to Thomas with 11:41 left in the third. Brees completed all five of his passes on the drive for 51 yards, the last one being a screen on the right side of the field. Thomas evaded defenders, stepped out of a tackle in the middle of the field before diving into the end zone.
Indianapolis went back on top, 17-13, with 6:15 left in the quarter thanks to Addai's four-yard TD run. Manning hit Dallas Clark with an 11-yard gain up the middle to convert a 3rd-and-5. On the next play, Addai powered up the middle, spun out of a tackle and scored standing up to end the 10-play, 76-yard drive. He accounted for 24 yards in the march.
Brees then moved the Saints from their own 34 to the Indy 29, but the drive stalled when Jeremy Shockey couldn't break loose for a first down after a four-yard catch over the middle. Hartley was called on and split the uprights from 47 yards out with 2:01 remaining.
Hartley became the first kicker to have at least three field goals made of 40- plus yards in the same Super Bowl game.
The Colts were deep in their territory when the quarter came to a close.
A Manning touchdown pass capped a 96-yard drive in the opening quarter and then the Colts had a goal-line stand to stop the Saints in the final two minutes of the half.
Matt Stover kicked a 38-yard field goal midway through the first quarter, and Manning ended the Super Bowl's record-tying longest drive with a 19-yard scoring toss to Pierre Garcon with 36 seconds remaining in the same period.
The Saints, in the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, got a 46-yard field goal from Hartley in the early moments of the second quarter, but were thwarted on a fourth down run from the one with 1:49 left. Hartley split the uprights from 44 yards on the final play of the second quarter.
Through three quarters, Brees has connected on 25-of-32 passes for 244 yards, while Manning is 17-of-24 for 162 yards. Addai has 10 rushes for 79 yards.
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Super Bowl XLIV has been a tale of two very different quarters, but Indianapolis, vying for a second title in four years, has managed to hold a 10-6 lead at halftime on the New Orleans Saints. The Colts used a Pe
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Santiago, Chile (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brazil's Thomaz Bellucci defeated
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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