Cubs, Brewers to begin key NL Central series
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Chicago Cubs are going to win a third straight National League Central title, they are going to have to pick it up offensively. This weekend would be a good time to get it going, as they return home for the start of a four-game set against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers that begins tonight.
The Cubs, who last year led the NL with 855 runs scored, have struggled at the plate all season long and especially recently. They were blanked four times in the month of June and managed just one run on three other occasions.
All and all, though, the Cubs are just 3 1/2 games back of the Brewers in the Central race and enter this series on the heels of taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chicago pulled out a series win on Wednesday, as Derrek Lee belted a two-run home run and Randy Wells tossed seven innings of one-run ball to lead the Cubs to a 4-1 win in the rubber match of a three-game series at PNC Park.
Wells (3-3) gave up six hits and fanned four batters to collect his third straight victory. Kevin Gregg retired the side in the ninth to pick up his 14th save of the year.
Kosuke Fukudome hit a solo homer and doubled, while Geovany Soto went 2-for-4 with a triple and an RBI single for the Cubs, who won for just the third time in their last 10 games.
"I have been trying to go out and throw strikes to keep the flow of the game going. The last three games I have been able to do that," Wells said.
Hoping to keep Chicago in the win column tonight will be Ryan Dempster, who is 4-5 with a 4.09 ERA. Dempster, a 17-game winner a season ago, has just one win in his last eight starts and is winless in his previous five outings.
On Saturday against the White Sox, Dempster did not factor in the decision but was far from effective, as he allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings of the Cubs' 8-7 loss.
Dempster lost to the Brewers the last time he faced them, but is 9-3 lifetime against them with a 2.79 ERA in 37 games (15 starts).
Milwaukee, meanwhile, was denied a sweep in its three-game series with the New York Mets on Wednesday, despite a sensational effort from Yovani Gallardo in the 1-0 loss.
Gallardo (8-5) absorbed the loss despite giving up only one run on five hits in seven innings. He also struck out a career-high 12 and walked two.
"He mixes all his pitches well for strikes," New York's Ryan Church said of Gallardo. "He keeps you off-balance. He keeps you guessing. He really has good control of his curveball and changeup. A lot of people were swinging at the curveball down in the dirt."
Ryan Braun went 2-for-4 for the Brewers, who lost for only the second time in their last six games.
Getting the call for the Brewers tonight will be right-hander Seth McClung, who is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA this season. After 28 relief appearances, McClung made his first start of the season on Saturday against San Francisco and did not get a decision, as he allowed three runs and six hits in four innings.
This will be McClung's first-ever start versus the Cubs, but he is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in 10 trips out of the bullpen against them.
Milwaukee has split its six meetings with the Cubs this season, but won in five of its nine visits to Wrigley a year ago.
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros shoot for a series win this afternoon over the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, where the two ballclubs will wrap up a four-game set. Houston has won five of its last seven games, including two of the fir
<< Mets head to Pittsburgh for makeup with Bucs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before the New York Mets begin a critical three-game set in
Philadelphia this weekend, they must first play a makeup game in the Keystone
State against the Pittsburgh Pirates today at PNC Park.
Today's contest was original
<< Judge lifts Mayfield's suspension
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A federal judge lifted the NASCAR-imposed
suspension on driver Jeremy Mayfield Wednesday, allowing him to race again,
possibly as soon as this weekend at Daytona International Speedway.
"This is huge for us.
<< Sedin twins headline first day of NHL free agency
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wednesday marked the beginning of the
NHL's free agency period, and two of the biggest players on the open market
opted to stay put.
The Vancouver Canucks re-signed forwards Daniel and Henrik
<< Yankees' Nady to have Tommy John surgery
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees outfielder Xavier Nady will
undergo ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow next Wednesday.
The Tommy John surgical procedure will be performed by Dr. Lewis Yocum.
"I'm extremely disa
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are gradually working their way up the NL East standings and will try to extend their winning streak to a season-high four straight games tonight in the finale of a three-game series versus the Philadelphia
Yankees hope A-Rod stays hot in finale vs. Seattle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez is starting to heat up. Not coincidentally,
so are the New York Yankees.
The Bronx Bombers will be shooting for an eighth consecutive victory and a
series sweep of Rodriguez's original team, the Seattl
Reds, D-Backs close series in Cincy >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds hope that Aaron Harang can have the
same type of outing Johnny Cueto had last night, as they wrap up a three-game
series Thursday afternoon from Great American Ball Park.
Cueto tossed six shutout inning
Cardinals try to even up Giants in series finale >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Zito tries to slow down Albert Pujols this evening
when the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals conclude a four-game set
at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis won in dramatic fashion on Wednesday, as Colby Rasmus bel
White Sox take win streak to Kansas City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox will be putting a season-high win
streak on the line when the resurgent club heads to Kansas City's Kauffman
Stadium tonight for the opener of a four-game series with the Royals.
Chicago comes
Problem with Bears?
Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true.
"There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us."
Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that."
Former Bears receiver Bobby Wade caused a stir when he told Minneapolis radio station KFAN-AM that Urlacher used a profanity while questioning Cutler's manhood during a conversation in Las Vegas last weekend. Wade, who now plays for the Vikings, said Urlacher used a profane version of the word "wimp" during the interview that had to be edited out.
go radio station WSCR-AM also reported that Urlacher had to be restrained from confronting Cutler during organized team activities.
"I wouldn't go face-to-face with Brian, anyway," Cutler said. "No, that's never happened. I've hung out with Brian away from the facility numerous times and we've always gotten along."
Urlacher, noting he was limited by a groin injury, denied the reports in an interview with the Chicago Tribune and did it again when he reported to camp.
"I didn't practice this summer, so I don't know how I would fight the guy if I didn't practice," Urlacher said. "We have no problems. I'm excited about football starting. I'm excited to have him as our quarterback."
Why would Wade say that?
"I don't know," Urlacher said. "Maybe he's jealous because we have a good quarterback now."
Cutler said the first he heard of any friction was when he got a call from Urlacher to clear the air. Urlacher, however, said he had already taken several calls from teammates wondering if the reports were true when Cutler phoned.
"He called me and I said, What's up (expletive), what are you doing?'" a grinning Urlacher said, uttering the same word he allegedly used with Wade. "It's so dumb to me that this even got to this point, but it did and then here we are."
better place after going 9-7 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. They have a franchise quarterback for the first time in decades after acquiring Cutler in an offseason trade with Denver. But there are questions about his attitude following a fallout with Broncos management and new coach Josh McDaniels.
His critics include former Bears coach Mike Ditka and former Indianapolis and Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy, one of Smith's mentors. Smith, however, said Cutler has been a model teammate so far while denying any animosity with Urlacher.
"There's no issue with Jay and Brian, except Brian and Jay are both excited about being teammates for our club this year," coach Lovie Smith said. "No more than that. We can't spend a whole lot of time on something that isn't true. I have talked to the players. Whenever something comes out, you have to address it, but it's a non-issue."
In some ways, Cutler is getting a second chance in Chicago, an opportunity to repair his reputation.
Smith said another quarterback - Michael Vick - deserves one, although he doesn't see it happening with the Bears, who lack an experienced backup. The former Atlanta Falcons star, who served a 23-month sentence for running a dogfighting ring, said Thursday he is getting close to signing with a pro football team.
"A second chance, like everyone in society who has paid their debt to society," Smith said. "He deserves a second chance. As far as we're concerned, we like this team that we have right now."
Particularly the new quarterback.
"Me and Brian have been on a good relationship since I've been here, and I expect it to continue that way," Cutler said.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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